No one knows!
It’s everyone’s favourite guessing game at the moment- what will house prices and interest rates be in 2024?
There are no shortage of opinions- from economists and professionals to people who haven’t bought or sold a home in 30 years.
The headlines swing daily from alarmist warnings, to soft landings, to a return to pandemic highs by fall 2024.
The truth is, no one knows. Even the best modelling algorithms can’t take everything into account given how rapidly and unexpectedly the world changes these days.
So, my advice is take a breath. If you’re thinking of buying or selling, you need to block out the noise, talk to professionals who do this everyday and look at data. Usually, these are the recent sales in the area you’re buying or selling. What are the trends on the street for that type of home? This will give you the best idea of what to expect.
Timing “the perfect conditions” is never going to happen. I know people think realtors always say it’s a good time to buy and sell, but it really depends on what buying and selling you want to do.
We’re seeing some stability with the interest rate, but no one can say for sure when the first decrease will be. A lot of opinions say sooner, because the government can’t let billions of dollars of mortgages be at risk. But the Bank of Canada- in theory- is not part of government policy. They only consider what is best for the GDP and economy, not the individual person.
Short term housing inventory is growing, buyers are less active and overall volume is down considerably from historical averages.
Trend lines of past interest rate spikes and housing sales predict that rates will come down faster than they went up- but we’ve never seen 10 increases in a year so it’s hard to imagine rates will come down faster this time. But once they start to come down, trends show that the market will quickly escalate to previous highs in sale prices.
My bottom line is: always do what is best for you, at the time you need to do it. If you are planning to sell, we’ll get you the best possible price on the day it sells. If you’re trying to buy, keep searching, we’ll get you the best house possible on the day you buy. Neither of these statements change when the market or interest rate changes. It’s all relative.